North Korea and the United States shouted experts at the end of the year: it is expected that North Korea will not cross the "red line" of the United States

  The end of this year is the deadline set by the DPRK for the denuclearization negotiations between the DPRK and the United States, but the DPRK-US dialogue has still not made progress. The outside world is worried that both sides will take action because the deadline is approaching, but at the same time, it is also expected that both sides can release positive signals and change the current situation.

  The Fifth Plenary Session of the Seventh Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) is a top priority in North Korea at present. This is the second time that the WPK has held a plenary session for more than two consecutive days after 29 years. According to a report by Korean Central News Agency on December 31, 2019, the Fifth Plenary Session of the Seventh Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea entered the agenda for the third day on the 30th, and Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea, continued to give a report.

  This photo provided by Korean Central News Agency on December 31, 2019 shows that Kim Jong-un spoke at the Fifth Plenary Session of the Seventh Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea. The eyes of the outside world focused on the latest statement of the meeting: "Actively take measures to comprehensively safeguard national sovereignty and security" is the Chinese version of Korean Central News Agency’s statement, while literal translation of the original text should be "positive and offensive measures". The word "offensive" has aroused widespread concern. Lee Sang-min, spokesman of South Korea’s Unification Ministry, said on December 30th that regarding the so-called "offensive measures" mentioned by the DPRK at this meeting, the ROK will pay close attention to the contents and resolutions of the follow-up meeting of the DPRK.

  At the same time, the United States’ recent tough stance toward the DPRK has not relaxed at all. In an interview with the media on December 29th, White House National Security Adviser O ‘Brien said, "If North Korea takes action, the United States, as a major military and economic power, will take appropriate actions to respond." He added, "There are many choices in the American toolkit".

  In addition to the "offensive" expression, we should also pay attention to others.

  Both sides seem to have a tendency to wait for opportunities. Liu Tiancong, an associate researcher at the Northeast Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said in an interview with The Paper, "It seems that both sides are showing strength, but this is not the case. The two sides still have some tacit understanding. The upper limit of US-DPRK relations depends on the United States, and the lower limit depends on North Korea. Specifically, whether we can talk about it and talk about the results depends on the United States; Whether it will collapse depends on North Korea. "

  Wang Junsheng, a researcher at the Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy Institute of the China Academy of Social Sciences, also pointed out in an interview with The Paper that "since 2018, North Korea has made great contributions to easing the situation on the peninsula, but it has not received the expected return from the United States. North Korea assessed that the United States hopes to crush North Korea through pressure, so it said ‘ Active and offensive ’ The key meaning of is to express ‘ We can’t be crushed ’ But in any case, the DPRK still puts constructive and positive words in front, and it is also releasing signals to the outside. "

  In fact, it must be noted that the discussion on the military and national security aspects is only a part of this domestic meeting in North Korea, which also involves many other contents, among which the economy is still the most concerned aspect. According to Korean Central News Agency’s report on December 31, 2019, Kim Jong-un emphasized the principle of strengthening party building and enhancing the role of cadres, and spent seven hours making a comprehensive report on the work of the CPC Central Committee, national construction, economic development and military construction of the DPRK.

  Korean Central News Agency said that Kim Jong-un "anatomically" comprehensively analyzed a series of problems in the overall national construction, such as current national management and economic construction.

  Wang Junsheng believes that the shift of North Korea’s strategic center to economic construction in 2018 is a new thing for North Korea, because in the process of transformation, there may be problems that have not appeared before. The analysis of these problems is an important part of this meeting, and besides, it is necessary to unify thoughts and cognition internally.

  Liu Tiancong said that although there are some tough messages in the content of the Fifth Plenary Session, it is prudent and continuous on the whole, and the fields involved are comprehensive and extensive. Most of the content is to emphasize economic development and party building, not just to show strength to the outside world. As an important meeting held at this important stage, the outcome of the Fifth Plenary Session will determine North Korea’s domestic and foreign policies for a long time to come.

  The fluctuation of US-DPRK relations stems from the lack of basic trust.

  Just before this meeting, the seventh the Central Military Commission (CMC) of the Workers’ Party of Korea just held its third enlarged meeting and decided to further strengthen the overall armed forces of the Korean People’s Army and other countries politically and militarily. This signal is the epitome of the whole December 2019. In the past 30 days, the DPRK and the United States have intensively tested each other with tough tone and practices, including two "major tests" conducted by the DPRK at the West Sea satellite launch site one week apart, and a series of threatening targeted remarks made by the US from President Trump to Secretary of Defense Esper to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Millie.

  On December 16, 2019, US Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Beagan was in Seoul. In sharp contrast to the Xinhua News Agency, the State Council’s special representative for North Korea policy, Beagan, visited South Korea, Japan and China in mid-December 2019, and finally failed. Previously, the contact with North Korean officials was finally dashed. In fact, this can be foreseen as early as an expression by Myong gil Kim, the visiting ambassador of the DPRK Foreign Ministry in November, when he said, "If the United States only holds talks to successfully get through the end of the year, then North Korea is not interested in such talks."

  In Singapore in June 2018, US President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reached a four-point consensus in the joint statement signed jointly, and the outside world generally had more positive expectations for the DPRK-US relations. However, in 2019, the DPRK-US relations have been fluctuating repeatedly. First, from the Hanoi summit in February, Trump crossed the "38th parallel" and became the first incumbent US president to enter North Korea. Then, in October, the Swedish working talks between the two sides ended without results, and the DPRK-US relations were full of twists and turns like a roller coaster.

  On June 30, 2019, US President Trump (right) and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un held talks at the "Freedom House" on the Korean side of Panmunjom. Xinhua News Agency data map Liu Tiancong believes that the fundamental reason for the intermittent relationship between the United States and the DPRK lies in: on the one hand, there are fundamental differences between the two sides on the issue of denuclearization that are difficult to reconcile; On the other hand, the two countries, mainly the United States, need to maintain the basic atmosphere of dialogue in order to obtain political interests. For more than a year, even if the relationship between the United States and North Korea was warm for a while, it was just a political need, which was difficult to last and even more difficult to go deep.

  "There is a lack of the most basic trust between the DPRK and the United States." Wang Junsheng believes that this is the core issue that caused this situation. "The DPRK and the United States have reached a consensus on the direction of solving the Korean Peninsula issue, but this year’s issue is how to implement it, in other words, who will take the first step. North Korea is unwilling to declare its nuclear weapons program first and abandon its nuclear program first, fearing that the United States will strike, while the United States is worried that North Korea will renege after lifting sanctions. " Wang Junsheng pointed out that this situation not only requires the persistence of both sides, but also urgently requires the intervention of a third party.

  The international community actively promotesword

  At the same time, all parties in the international community hope that the tense fire of DPRK-US relations in 2019 will spread to the upcoming New Year as little as possible.

  On December 30th, the UN Security Council held an informal meeting to discuss the second round of the proposal put forward by China and the Russian Federation to partially lift sanctions against North Korea. Although the final result of the proposal is unknown, and there are many predictions that the attitude of the United States will not be reversed at all, it is an attempt to solve the peninsula problem politically in any case. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Geng Shuang said at a regular press conference on the 31st that at this meeting, all parties further exchanged views on the draft resolution and were willing to keep in touch with each other on the next step of negotiation.

  On December 24th, when asked about the relevant issues, the spokesman of the UN Secretary-General said, "Our message to North Korean leaders is to commit to peace and stability on the peninsula and resume working-level dialogue with the United States."

  At the previous meeting of leaders of China, Japan and South Korea, the three countries also reiterated that denuclearization of the peninsula and lasting peace in Northeast Asia are the common goal of the three parties, and dialogue and consultation are the only effective way to solve the peninsula problem. They also said that they should strengthen communication and coordination among the three countries on peninsula affairs and play a constructive role in realizing denuclearization of the peninsula and long-term stability in Northeast Asia.

  Late at night on December 21st, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also said after a telephone conversation with US President Trump that Japan will strive to promote North Korea’s efforts to achieve denuclearization of the peninsula through peaceful dialogue, and Japan fully supports the US-DPRK negotiations on denuclearization of the peninsula.

  At 6: 30 pm local time on February 27, 2019, the second US-DPRK summit was unveiled at Sofitel Legend Hotel in Hanoi, Vietnam. Under the eyes of everyone, US President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un walked into the venue and smiled and shook hands. Liu Tiancong predicted that according to the current situation, North Korea is not expected to do anything too outrageous, such as resuming nuclear tests. North Korea may show toughness by launching short-and medium-range land-based missiles, submarine-launched missiles and even satellites, but these will not touch the red line of the United States and will not lead to the collapse of the US-DPRK dialogue. As long as North Korea does not cross the line, Trump will not take the initiative to worsen US-DPRK relations and find trouble for himself before the election. Therefore, it is quite possible for the situation on the peninsula to maintain the current situation and even further resume the dialogue between the United States and the DPRK.

  Wang Junsheng believes that all parties should strive for the common denominator as much as possible, try to continue discussing the reversible clauses of resolutions concerning the DPRK within the framework of the UN Security Council, and work out a clear road map for lifting sanctions, and then try to deal with the contents related to the humanitarian field first.

Citrus with falling prices, apples that can’t be sold … How can the fruit industry spend the cold winter smoothly?

How to spend the winter of fruit industry smoothly?

  As the Spring Festival approaches, the fruit consumption market begins to "pick up", and consumers buy fruits in supermarkets. Our reporter Wang Xiaochuan photo

  Beginning of spring has passed, and the breeze is beginning to bring some warmth.

  But for the vast majority of fruit people, this "winter" is cold and long, and it is really a bit difficult.

  Cherry, once the "pearl of fruit industry", has been sold from the past to today’s ten pounds of postage, and has already stepped down from the altar. The "freedom of cherries", which was once pursued hard, now seems like telling a cold joke to the fruit industry.

  It’s not just cherries that are sad.

  Domestic fruits, led by citrus, are also in a difficult position to support. From January to December 2020, the average wholesale price of bulk fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs decreased by 9.8% compared with 2019. Some merchants feel more directly, "the price of fruit has dropped by at least 30% year-on-year".

  What is even more helpless is that even if the price has been "discounted", the volume of fruit still does not improve.

  The China Fruit Circulation Association recently issued the "Initiative on Doing a Good Job in Current Fruit Sales", calling on the whole industry to actively respond to the crisis and spend the cold winter together.

  The sudden "cold" and "freezing" made people in the fruit industry a little confused. The price that can’t be raised, the fruit that can’t be sold, the warehouse piled up like a mountain, and the fruit industry people are waiting for the arrival of spring.

  An expanding orchard

  Guangxi Lipu Sugar Orange is a well-known regional public brand of citrus. In 2016, when the reporter went to Guangxi for an interview, an orange farmer joked: "The Bureau of Industry and Commerce of the Finance Bureau, it is better for me to go home and plant sugar oranges!"

  Now, it seems that it is the last glory of sugar orange.

  In 2016-2017, the average price of sugar oranges in Guangxi once reached a high of 12.6 yuan per kilogram, and countless fruit farmers lived in the "Citrus House" by relying on their 10 acres of citrus orchards.

  The sudden epidemic in 2020 poured cold water on the head of sugar orange. Fruit merchants can’t get in, fruits can’t get out, and there are not a few citrus orchards that have been abandoned.

  The accident that was regarded by many people at that time was repeated again this year. Just a month ago, the average price of sugar oranges in Guangxi hit a deep pit in 1.2 yuan per catty. This price is even lower than the input cost of fruit farmers.

  For fruit farmers, it is not important to pick the fruit or not, which is doomed to be a loss.

  This ending was actually buried as early as a few years ago when sugar oranges were expensive. The price of citrus is soaring, and the industrial and commercial capital with a keen sense of smell is coming into the "orange". Guilin and other sugar oranges are planted in big markets, and fruit farmers even compete to transfer land to other markets. Planting sugar oranges is like planting a cash cow.

  Zhao Junyi, chief fruit analyst of the agricultural products market analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, told the reporter that the area and output of citrus have been increasing continuously in recent years. In 2018, citrus output surpassed apples to become the largest fruit raw product category in China, and in 2019, citrus output accounted for 24.1% of the total output of garden fruits in China.

  The continuous expansion of orchards will inevitably bring high supply. Citrus is not resistant to storage, so it is inevitable that "price stampede" will occur when it is listed centrally.

  This cold winter in the fruit industry, when the new citrus season came on the market in November last year, has already begun to show signs. Wuming Wogan, Lipu Sugar Orange and other popular "star" fruits in the past are not only unsatisfactory in price, but also worrying in sales volume. Only when they are listed can they not be sold. Fruit farmers have to beg the buyers to take as many goods as possible.

  Chen Yucheng, head of Sihui Cuitian Agricultural Science and Technology Co., Ltd. in Zhaoqing City, Guangdong Province, said frankly: "The pressure this year is particularly great. Some time ago, due to the influence of the cold wave, it was difficult to sell in the north. Coupled with the epidemic situation and the low price of foreign fruits, the confidence that fruit farmers had just stabilized was somewhat shaken. "

  The pressure of continuous loss is transmitted to fruit quality through fruit farmers. A person in charge of Guangxi Fruit Technical Guidance Station told the reporter that due to the poor market, the willingness of growers to invest has been greatly reduced, and the investment in organic fertilizer and film mulching has decreased accordingly, which has led to the decline of fruit quality, further affecting sales and forming a vicious circle.

  Fruits piled up in the warehouse

  It’s not just fruit farmers who are suffering from the cold winter. The pressure on fruit dealers may be even greater.

  According to the data of Guangxi agricultural products production and marketing price monitoring and early warning system, on February 5th, the origin price of sugar orange was higher than the wholesale price per kilogram in 0.3 yuan. It is hard to imagine that the wholesale price is upside down with the origin price in any industry.

  There are also traditional bulk fruits such as apples and pears on sale. In the 2020 crop season, the national apple output is about 41 million tons, and it still maintains a relatively stable supply. Looking at the whole year, the prices of Fuji apples and Yali pears dropped by 28% and 28% respectively compared with the previous year.

  "The sales situation is not ideal. Some dealers sell at a loss of 50 cents per catty. After all, it will cost more to continue to put it in the cold storage." Lu Fangxiao, president of China Fruit Circulation Association, said.

  However, it is difficult to reverse the situation that the inventory of cold storage continues to be high. It is reported that about 11 million tons of apples will be stored in the cold storage in 2020, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and a record high.

  Many dealers spent a lot of money on Apple last year, but this year they are trapped by Apple. The strong market during the new listing of apples in 2020 attracted many pear merchants, garlic merchants and ginger merchants to join the inventory. In January 2021, the cold inventory of apples was about 1.5 million tons higher than that of the same period of the previous year.

  What is the pressure on the sales side of the fruit industry? According to the data of China Fruit Circulation Association, the total domestic fruit output this year is 274 million tons. This means that Chinese people need to consume nearly a catty of fruit every day to complete the task of destocking the fruit industry.

  Domestic fruits are under pressure, and the annual festival of imported fruits is also difficult. Imported fruits, a popular gift before the Spring Festival in previous years, have continued to shrink this year, and they are also facing the pressure of high inventory. Taking cherries as an example, it is preliminarily estimated that there are nearly 1,500-2,000 cabinets in stock in China at present, and 5,000 cabinets will arrive in Hong Kong before the Spring Festival.

  The epidemic situation in COVID-19 has become a cloud that cannot be dispersed on the head of imported fruits. Consumers’ panic about imported fruits has led to a decrease in purchasing desire and a sharp drop in sales volume.

  A dealer who has been engaged in the import fruit business all the year round said that in order to attract consumers, he launched a "fruit gift package" that had never been seen before, and hung the report on the results of cold chain disinfection treatment conspicuously. Even so, there are still customers who are worried.

  On the one hand, the fruit farmers begged, on the other hand, the consumers hesitated, and the dealers caught in the middle looked at the goods piled up in the warehouse and wanted to cry. For many fruit distributors, "surviving" has become the biggest wish this year.

  Lost traditional market

  It has to be admitted that the epidemic situation is profoundly changing the fruit industry in China.

  Under the epidemic situation, the consumption demand of fruit as a non-necessity is slightly weak, which is directly reflected in the traditional wholesale market. The relevant person in charge of Beijing Xinfadi Market told the reporter that compared with previous years, the shipment of fruits dropped by about 40% this year. This data also applies to many offline chain retail stores.

  A dealer in Guangxi said that some fresh fruit farms shipped five or six cars in the past day, but now there are only two or three cars a day, and the popularity is bleak, far less than in previous years.

  In sharp contrast, the online market is hot. Jing Changbao, director of purchasing food, told the reporter that in 2020, the overall sales of fresh food on the platform will increase by three times, and consumers’ acceptance of various brands of agricultural products and landmark products will be significantly improved.

  Compared with vegetables, fruits are obviously more suitable for online sales. According to a report released by China Academy of Agricultural Sciences, fruit was the largest category of online retail sales of agricultural products in 2019, accounting for 38.3%. The information disclosed by the person in charge of a fruit market consulting company is more intuitive. In the terminal sales of Apple, online sales reached 14%, the proportion of direct mining was 35%, and the proportion of farmers’ market dropped to about 40%.

  The rules of the game have changed, and a large number of fruit stall owners have to change careers. "Online is direct supply from the place of origin, and the price sold to end consumers is even lower than our purchase price."

  However, the final trend of online sales is still controversial in the industry.

  "Community group buying, which was popular some time ago, also had a big impact on the fruit market. However, we believe that this low-price sales method is unsustainable and will eventually lead to vicious competition and low-price competition. In the long run, consumers will suffer. " Lu Fangxiao said.

  Where is the spring of fruit industry?

  How to spend the winter in the fruit industry smoothly?

  In the eyes of the industry, the overall progress of fruit sales is slow now, which is more of a structural reason. There are many kinds of fruits, and consumers have great choices. 20 years ago, the scene of carrying sacks to buy apples is no longer there, and the trend of individualization, quality and branding of fruit consumption is becoming more and more obvious.

  In the eyes of young consumers, traditional fruits such as apples and pears are no longer the first choice, and "liking the new and hating the old" is their consumption habit. From sugar orange five years ago, Wogan orange three years ago, to "online celebrity" jelly orange and ugly orange today, the rapid change of market hotspots has left many fruit farmers at a loss.

  "Overall, the total supply of fruits in China is more than enough, and the structural contradictions are prominent. staple goods is everywhere, lacking safe, green and high-quality fruits." Lu Fangxiao believes that to fundamentally solve the problem of fruit industry, the key is to put an end to the disorderly expansion of production end. Only by adhering to high-quality development, continuously accelerating the improvement of varieties, continuously optimizing planting structure according to market demand, and cultivating more influential and well-known brands can consumers truly satisfy their pursuit of a better life.

  Under pressure, it is urgent to adjust the industrial structure. Guangxi, which ranks first in citrus production in China, has taken the lead in moving. The Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of Citrus Industry in Guangxi issued in November 2020 clearly pointed out that it is necessary to avoid following the trend, prevent industrial recession, and strive to further optimize the citrus structure and layout.

  Embracing new channels has also become a compulsory course for traditional "fruit people". Some traditional channel dealers began to take the initiative to "get an electric shock online", hoping to take the sales path of combining online and offline at the same time and get closer to consumers.

  Some dealers hope to make a "turnaround" by using "online celebrity" fruit, and regional public brands and landmark agricultural products become their first choice. The "2020 Online Consumption Trend Report of Agricultural Products" released by JD.COM Big Data Research Institute shows that at the moment when the brands of well-known agricultural products enterprises are not prominent, the place of origin has become the primary label of agricultural products quality.

  In fact, even if we are experiencing the cold winter, people in the fruit industry feel differently. According to the data provided by JD.COM, the turnover of landmark agricultural products in the first half of 2020 still increased by 74% year-on-year. Fine brands such as Sichuan Ugly Orange and Yunnan Blueberry have seen a leap in sales.

  The next spring of the fruit industry may be in these changes.

Autumn children have loose bowels, beware of rotavirus as a demon.

  Among children with diarrhea under 5 years old in China, about 40% of hospitalized cases are caused by rotavirus, and 30% of outpatient cases are caused by rotavirus. Li Dandi, a researcher at the Center for Virus Prevention and Control of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, recently reminded that diarrhea in autumn is not as simple as a cold stomach. Rotavirus infection is the real cause of diarrhea, and it is the most important pathogen of severe diarrhea in infants. According to the World Health Organization, in 2013, nearly 220,000 children under 5 died of rotavirus infection.

  Zhang Zhu, deputy director of the Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Hospital, also reminded that rotavirus is particularly active in autumn, and it recurs every year, usually from August to December, and the most active period in the north is October and November. Rotavirus diarrhea is highly contagious, not only through the digestive tract, but also through the respiratory tract. Therefore, children with rotavirus infection often have respiratory symptoms, such as fever and cough, accompanied by particularly severe watery diarrhea. This watery diarrhea may be like egg flower soup, but it has no abnormal odor. This is a typical rotavirus infection. Rotavirus may be accompanied by some food poisoning, including Escherichia coli, which are diseases that children are particularly susceptible to in autumn.

  What emergency treatment should parents do if the child suddenly has abdominal pain? Zhang Zhu said that taking rotavirus as an example, most viral enteritis can heal itself, and there can be a slow recovery process in about one to two weeks. However, children will lose some water and salt in the process, so it is particularly important for parents to deal with it scientifically.

  First of all, don’t eat antibiotics indiscriminately. For example, quinolones can affect children’s cartilage development, and children under 16 are not recommended to eat them, because parents’ indiscriminate use of drugs may bring more serious problems to children.

  Oral rehydration salts are more practical. It is recommended that families with babies can prepare some oral rehydration salts, which can reasonably supplement the loss of fluids in children’s bodies and supplement certain electrolytes such as potassium, sodium and chlorine. What if there is no rehydration salt at home? You can use orange juice bought in the supermarket to heat and sterilize, and then add a little salt. Because orange juice contains a lot of potassium chloride, plus a little sodium chloride, potassium, sodium, chlorine and other lost electrolytes are available; Orange juice contains high sugar and is a good calorie supplement for children with diarrhea.

  Liu Cuiying, deputy director of the Department of Infectious Diseases of Beijing Children’s Hospital, reminded that the symptoms of rotavirus infection are the most serious for the first time. Parents should not think that rotavirus infection is ordinary diarrhea. Once they find that their children have typical loose stools, or that they have no tears when crying, and their skin is relatively dry, or that they have persistent high fever, a lot of mucus or blood in their stools, acute abdominal pain, and their children are depressed or unable to feed water and food, they must go to the hospital in time.