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The earth itself is not a hard rock, 40-70 kilometers below the earth’s crust is lava, which is somewhat similar to the structure of an egg. If you want to drive more than 10,000 engines, it will take only a hundred years to push the earth to "walk", and the engine will put pressure on the earth, which the earth cannot afford, and will break the shell of the "egg". And if the engine slowly accelerates and gradually reaches maximum power, the earth will be "wandering" for a longer time, or even thousands of years. During the "wandering" period, it is difficult to predict what will happen to the earth, what will happen to it, and what human civilization will experience.

If the solar crisis is imminent, how can human beings survive? As the only planet known to exist in the Milky Way, the earth is always "roasted" by the sun.

In five or six billion years, the sun is nearing the "end" of its life, and this "roasting" will become extremely deadly.

The recent blockbuster film "The Wandering Earth 2" unfolds against this backdrop of impending doom. In the film, humans try to find a chance to survive with the help of 10,000 giant planetary engines, quantum computers that understand everything, and towering space elevators.

So, in reality, will the sun eventually deal a fatal blow to the earth? Will the earth decline with the sun? Can planetary engines really push the earth to "wander"? To this end, the Science and Technology Daily reporter interviewed a number of scientific consultants, experts and scholars of "Wandering Earth 2" to interpret the hard core science about "Wandering Earth".

If the sun comes to an end, will the earth be spared?

The sun crisis had just appeared, and humans had joined hands to face it… The future depicted in "The Wandering Earth 2" was cruel but exciting.

The sun, a huge "fireball" about 150 million kilometers from the earth, is the largest celestial body in the solar system. About 4.60 billion years ago, about 26,000 light-years from the center of the Milky Way, the sun was formed by the collapse of a nebula under the influence of its own attractive force.

At present, the sun is in its prime, astronomically known as the main sequence stage, which lasts about 10 billion years. It brings light and energy to the earth, and is an essential factor in the origin of life. But sunspots, flares, and coronal mass ejections also often cause damage to human production and life.

However, the sun will eventually age, and the origin of "The Wandering Earth 2" is the rapid expansion and aging of the sun.

More than 90 per cent of stars in the Milky Way eventually become white dwarfs. At the end of their evolution, they devour nearby planets. As an "ordinary" star, the Sun also ends up as a white dwarf. Does this mean that the planets around the Sun, including the Earth, are destined to be devoured as well?

"If the planet is relatively close to the star, it is very likely to be swallowed by the star," Gou Lijun, a scientific advisor to The Wandering Earth 2 and a researcher at the National Astronomical Observatory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told Science and Technology Daily.

However, "being swallowed" is not the only destination for a planet. The sun will eventually experience an outburst of a planetary nebula and become a white dwarf. Around the white dwarf, the original planets may also exist.

With the improvement of human observation methods, astronomers have indeed discovered some planets orbiting white dwarfs around them.

On September 16, 2020, the international authoritative academic journal Nature published an article saying that a team of American scientists had for the first time published evidence of a Jupiter-sized planet orbiting a white dwarf. In addition, in February 2022, British astronomers discovered that a planet may also exist in the "habitable" zone near a white dwarf named WD1054-226, 117 light-years away from Earth.

Can the earth escape and avoid the "solar crisis"?

In 2078, the earth will encounter the "helium flash" crisis of the sun, which is the key to the human decision to "wander" in the movie.

The helium flash is a key link in the evolution of the sun, and it is also the moment of life and death when the earth accepts the sun’s "roast".

"The sun shines because the core of the sun is undergoing a nuclear reaction, where hydrogen is fused to form helium. This process will gradually consume hydrogen, which will then lead to the collapse of the sun’s core. At the same time, the envelope outside the sun’s core expands under high pressure." Chen Pengfei, a professor at the School of Astronomy and Space Sciences at Nanjing University, told reporters. "When the core of the sun, which is mainly composed of helium, gradually contracts, its temperature is also getting higher and higher. When the temperature reaches about 100 million degrees Celsius, the helium will be ignited, and a large amount of helium will complete the fusion reaction in a few minutes. The energy released is huge, and the light emitted will suddenly increase by about 50 times. This process is helium flash."

In more than five billion years, after the sun becomes a red giant, its surface temperature may drop from more than 5,700 degrees Celsius now to about 3,000 degrees Celsius, when the hydrogen in the sun’s core will be exhausted. "Helium flashes usually occur at the end of the evolution of red giants," said Liang Wenjie, a scientific consultant for Wandering Earth 2 and a researcher at the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. "In the red giant stage, the sun has expanded to Earth’s orbit, and the surface temperature reaches about 3,000 degrees Celsius, while the melting temperature of the earth’s rocks is below 2,000 degrees Celsius. Therefore, whether it is a temperature change in the red giant stage or a sudden explosion of helium flashes, the earth will melt."

If the survival crisis of the earth is inevitable in more than 5 billion years, can it be avoided in advance during the "expansion period" of the sun, change the orbit and find another place, and return to the original earth orbit after the helium flash and other crises are lifted?

Liang Wenjie believes that even if the solar crisis is lifted and the earth returns to its original orbit, it may not be of much significance to the earth, "because the sun has entered the aging period at that time, and the heat it provides should not be able to support the survival of life on earth. Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune in the solar system are all frozen planets due to their distance from the sun, and the temperature of the planet is minus one or two hundred degrees Celsius. If the earth wants to return to the sun to obtain energy, it will have to constantly correct its orbit and approach the sun, but in the end the’big fireball ‘of the sun will still be’extinguished’."

"Even if it is possible to temporarily’run away from home ‘and then return home, the earth needs to accelerate out of the original orbit and then slow down. The process of adjusting the speed will be very long, and it will consume huge energy on the earth, and the project will be huge. What’s more, the process of returning to the earth’s current orbit and approaching the sun also has risks," Liang Wenjie said.

And if you give up the sun and find other stars, you will also face greater challenges. Gou Lijun believes that if the earth chooses another "habitat" in the universe and chooses a new star to orbit, it means to "adapt" to a new planetary orbit. Then the speed, direction, energy, etc. of entering the orbit need to be accurately measured, and it is difficult for human existing technology to achieve planetary celestial bodies in the short term.

Would nuclear fusion be a better "wandering" solution?

In the film, humans tried to find life at the end of the world through the Mountain Moving Project, the Ark Project, the Monthly Project, and the Digital Life Project. In the end, tens of thousands of giant planetary engines became the hope to push the earth to start a "wandering journey".

Mr. Liang, who has advised on the film’s planetary and lunar engines, the physics of the month-by-month plan and the way the moon explodes, said: "Artistically, the’wandering ‘way of the earth in the film is a great imagination, but it is still difficult to achieve at the current level of science."

Liang Wenjie explained: "The earth itself is not a hard rock, 40-70 kilometers below the earth’s crust is lava, which is a bit similar to the structure of an egg. If you want to drive more than 10,000 engines, and it only takes a hundred years to push the earth to’walk ‘, the engine will put pressure on the earth, which is beyond the earth’s ability to bear, and will break the shell of the’egg’. And if the engine accelerates slowly and gradually reaches maximum power, the earth will be’wandering ‘for a longer time, even thousands of years. During the’wandering’ period, it is difficult to predict what will happen to the earth, what will happen to it, and what human civilization will experience."

"But if you consider the energy supply method, controlled nuclear fusion is worth looking forward to, although it still faces great technical challenges." Liang Wenjie introduced that nuclear fusion is in the case of high temperature, two atomic nuclei collide with each other, and eventually combine to form a new atomic nucleus, which can release huge energy. The key to this is to continuously export the energy produced by nuclear fusion for a long time. To achieve this, many technical problems need to be overcome.

However, even if the nuclear fusion of hydrogen could eventually be realized and provide a large amount of energy for humanity, the important raw materials for nuclear fusion, deuterium and tritium, were in low abundance in the earth’s seawater, and the reserves of helium-3, the raw material for nuclear fusion, were also extremely scarce. Therefore, based on the total amount of resources currently available to humans, the energy of nuclear fusion is still not enough to push the earth out of the solar system.

So, is it possible to "burn stones" like in "The Wandering Earth 2" and obtain energy through heavy nuclear fusion? Liang Wenjie said that heavy nuclear fusion refers to the use of heavier elements such as silicon and oxygen as fusion raw materials to obtain nuclear energy. Compared with light nuclear fusion using deuterium, tritium, and helium-3 as raw materials, heavy nuclear fusion is very inefficient in obtaining fusion energy. Although silicon and oxygen elements have a large proportion in the earth’s crust, in order to overcome the huge electrostatic repulsion between the nuclei of heavy elements and make them produce nuclear fusion reactions, higher temperatures and stronger pressures are required, and the reaction temperature even needs to reach billions of degrees Celsius, which greatly challenges the current scientific and technological capabilities of mankind.

extended reading

Are there wandering planets in the universe?

If one day, the earth had to embark on a "wandering" journey, would it be possible to encounter celestial bodies that "sympathize with each other" in the vast universe?

According to Gou Lijun, a scientific advisor of "Wandering Earth 2" and a researcher at the National Astronomical Observatory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, there is a type of planet that does not orbit any star in the universe, namely the wandering planet. At present, humans have detected about 100 wandering planets, the larger ones are about ten times the size of Jupiter, and the smaller ones are close to the earth.

"According to the current understanding, there may be two ways for stray planets to form: one is that when they form, only the planets themselves. Another possibility is that the planet is’ejected ‘from the star system." For example, if a larger star is near the solar system, it is possible that under the action of attractive forces, the outermost planet of the solar system may deviate from its original orbit and eventually leave the solar system.

Liang Wenjie, a science adviser for "The Wandering Earth 2" and a researcher at the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, offered another hypothesis: Large stars experience a violent explosion at the end of their evolution, a supernova explosion, and eject a large amount of interstellar material. "Planets near the star may be ejected from their original orbits at this time and become wandering planets."

In recent years, with the improvement of observation technology, stray planets have been continuously discovered by humans. In August 2018, American scientists confirmed that a planet about 12 times the mass of Jupiter was wandering alone about 20 light-years away from the earth and was not attached to any star. It was the first stray planet discovered by radio telescopes.

In 2020, American and Polish astronomers wrote in the Astrophysical Journal Letters that they might have discovered the smallest known rogue planet, with a microscopic attractive force lens, that "weighs" about 10 percent of Earth.

"Wandering planets do not emit light, so it is difficult to detect them. They are often discovered due to an accidental event, so they are paid attention to by the detector for a very short time, which also leads to the current research on wandering planets is very limited." According to Gou Lijun, according to the current level of human technology, it is impossible to determine whether there is life on wandering planets.

Liang Wenjie analyzed that in addition to the elements that make up life, such as amino acids, carbon, hydrogen and other substances, the existence of life also requires a suitable temperature. "The evolution of the universe sometimes ejects some organic matter onto the star, and the survival of organic matter requires a suitable temperature. Wandering planets do not heat up, and there are no stars to provide heat for them, so they will continue to cool down until they reach the lowest temperature in the universe. Such low temperatures are difficult to breed life," Liang Wenjie said.

　

RenXianqi, a well-known film and television song star. Photo by Li Haijun, China News Agency

　　China News Service, February 14, actor Ren Xianqi added another family member the day before yesterday (13th), and his wife Tina gave birth to a baby boy by caesarean section in Hong Kong at noon the day before yesterday, weighing 5 pounds and 3 ounces, which just made up a "good" word with her daughter.

　　According to the Hong Kong Wen Wei Po, Tina suddenly suffered from abdominal pain on the evening of the 12th, and Xiao Qi immediately accompanied Tina to the hospital, but did not accompany his wife to the delivery room. Xiao Qi said that he would cooperate with Gu Tianle later to shoot Du Qifeng’s new film, so he would stay in Hong Kong to try out styling. And his wife Tina also gave birth in Hong Kong in order to accompany him. Xiao Qi said that he was still on stage in the United States before. Fortunately, he had rushed back to Hong Kong to accompany Tina on the 11th, so he could meet the BB who was born a month earlier than the due date with Tina. He laughed and said that he was at a loss because he was not prepared. He did not even change the BB name, but the most important thing was that the mother and child were safe.

　

Editor in charge: Huo Yunxia

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On the evening of March 28th, Lei Jun, Chairman of Xiaomi Group, announced at the launch conference of Xiaomi Automobile that Xiaomi SU7 was officially released. Among them, the standard version is priced at 215,900 yuan.

According to Lei Jun, Xiaomi SU7 has been fully tested in 300 cities, with a total road test mileage of 5.4 million kilometers and 576 test vehicles invested.

Lei Jun said that there are 4 major color systems and 9 colors in the whole system of millet SU7, among which the color systems of sports cars are Gulf Blue and Lava Orange; Fashion colors: elegant gray, meteor blue, glow purple; Luxury colors: olive green, Cambrian gray; Classic colors: pearl white, diamond black. There are also 4 kinds of interiors and 4 sets of hub tires to choose from. In addition, Lei Jun released two "car peripheral" products-panoramic skylight sunshade and Mijia front windshield sunshade.

Ceos Li Bin, Li Xiang and He Xiaopeng of Weilai Automobile, Xpeng Motors and LI, the three "new forces" making cars, and the leaders of famous automobile brands such as Wei Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motor, attended the conference.

　　On July 6th, in the afternoon, the auto sector of Hong Kong stocks fell. As of press time, shares of Dongfeng Group, () fell more than 5%, () fell more than 4%, Geely Automobile fell more than 3% and () fell more than 2%.

　　At the same time, the A-share auto sector is also falling, Hanma Technology has fallen, and Guangzhou Automobile Group, () and () have weakened.

　　Year-to-date, the share price of () has risen by over 388%, and the share price of Xiaokang has also risen by over 250%.

　　On January 12th this year, Zotye Motor announced the progress of public recruitment of investors, saying that two prospective investors had paid the corresponding confidentiality deposit and intention deposit, and started to carry out specific due diligence work after paying the deposit. Since then, Zotye Auto’s share price has been rising all the way.

　　However, up to now, two prospective investors have terminated their investment and one has suspended their investment. This also means that the pre-reorganization plan started by Zotye Automobile last year may fail.

　　It is worth mentioning that Zotye Motor has a huge loss. According to the data of Zotye Auto’s annual report, the company lost 10.801 billion yuan in 2020, and its net assets at the end of 2020 were-4.423 billion yuan. At the same time, the company’s main business vehicle business is in a state of suspension or semi-suspension.

　　Xiaokang Co., Ltd. is an entity manufacturing enterprise with engines and new energy vehicles as its core business and complete vehicles as its main business. Now it has formed a complete industrial chain integrating independent research and development, manufacturing, sales and service of complete vehicles, engines and auto parts. In addition, Xiaokang’s stock business also involves car rental and Internet consumer finance.

　　The previous rise seems to have exhausted the market enthusiasm. What will happen to the market structure of the automobile industry in the second half of the year? What should investors focus on?

　　It is worth noting that many brokers frequently mention two points in the strategy of automobile industry: intelligence and independent brands.

　　Northeast Securities: Automotive Intelligentization Welcomes Turning Point, Huawei Leads the Wave.

　　We believe that intelligent transformation is a clear trend in the automobile industry, and it has already reached an inflection point. Intelligent automobile is the main investment logic in the next few years. At present, both OEMs and Tier1 manufacturers are actively increasing the intelligent layout. We are most concerned about Huawei. Huawei entered the automotive field and positioned itself as a Tier1 manufacturer. We judge that Huawei will lead the wave of automobile intelligence. We believe that intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit are the core solutions of Huawei, and these two segments are also the core of the wave of automobile intelligence.

　　Investment advice:

　　Great Wall Motor

　　Among domestic vehicle manufacturers, Great Wall Motor has a prominent strategic layout in the field of intelligent driving, and cooperates with Qualcomm and Huawei. Great Wall Motor will be the first to launch a coffee intelligent driving system based on the SnapdragonRide platform in the high-end models launched in 2022. Great Wall Motor and Huawei also cooperate in the fields of intelligent networking and intelligent driving. Huawei will provide Great Wall Motor with a high computing power intelligent driving computing platform based on MDC, and cooperate with Great Wall Motor to complete various evaluations and tests of the sensing components required for intelligent driving.

　　Changan automobile

　　() Join hands with Huawei and () to cooperate in the field of automotive intelligence. Changan Automobile has a strong ability to build cars, and it also has the accumulation of intelligent driving schemes. Combined with Huawei’s technical modules, it is expected to launch excellent intelligent cars.

　　Baolong technology

　　ADAS is still a good landing point for intelligent driving, and we continue to firmly recommend it (). Baolong Technology’s ADAS business made great efforts, and in 2021, it became the leading commercial vehicle ADAS in China, and subsequent passenger cars continued to follow up. At the same time, the company’s multi-category sensor business has developed rapidly and has broad application space in the field of autonomous driving.

　　Fuyao glass

　　Under the wave of intelligence, the permeability of skylight glass and HUD glass has increased, and the automotive glass business has ushered in a new space. As a new kind of automobile glass, skylight glass is widely used in electric vehicles. In recent years, HUD glass has gradually sunk from high-end cars to low-end models, accelerating market penetration and leading the trend of automobile intelligence. As a leader in the automotive glass industry, the company is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the growth space.

　　China Merchants Securities: "Intelligent Control, Electric Future" Accelerate Development

　　Automobile industry: the chip problem is expected to be solved in the third quarter, and the economy will pick up in the fourth quarter.

　　Passenger cars: It increased by 38.1% year-on-year from January to May, and it is estimated that the industry will be 7.5% in 2021.

　　New energy vehicles: From January to May, it increased by 2.5 times year-on-year, the C-end increased by 263%, and the supply of high-quality products increased. In May, the monthly penetration rate of new energy passenger cars was 11.5%, and the curtain of marketization opened, which will usher in a decade of high growth.

　　Commercial vehicles: It is estimated that the sales volume of heavy trucks will be under pressure with the strict implementation of the national six emission standards in the second half of 2021, and the national six emission upgrade will activate the 100 billion post-processing market.

　　"Intelligent control, electric future", the industry is advancing at full speed.

　　1. The whole vehicle: electrified and intelligent. The launch of new models in the electric vehicle industry will be accelerated, and the C-end consumption will rise and enter an accelerated penetration period. It is estimated that the industry sales will reach 2.2 million units in 2021, and electrification will change the cost structure of the industry for a long time; The accelerated investment in the direction of intelligence will change the industry ecology and change the business model. New elements will drive hardware intelligence and software-defined cars.

　　2. Parts and components: high-end, modular and international. High-end products enhance the value of products, modularity and then enhance the supporting value. The large domestic market and low cost determine the inevitable trend of the internationalization of parts and components.

　　Investment strategy: pay equal attention to structure and trend, and comprehensively lay out the automobile industry.

　　From top to bottom, we are optimistic about the systematic opportunities in the automobile industry. In terms of structural performance, new energy, parts and intelligence are the sub-sectors with high prosperity in 2021.

　　Passenger car: Great Wall Motor and Geely Automobile with strong product cycle are recommended; Guangzhou Automobile Group and () whose current valuation is still at a relatively low level in history are recommended.

　　Parts and components: Grasp "high-end, modular and international", and recommend (), (), (), (), () and so on.

　　Intelligence: Intelligent driving is the general trend, and many links have investment value. We recommend (), () and (), and pay attention to Shunyu Optics (electronic group coverage), () (electronic group coverage), () (electronic group coverage), () (electronic group coverage) and () (computer group coverage). The new forces represented by Tesla are growing fast and making high profits, and the relevant targets of the industrial chain are recommended.

　　New energy vehicles: electrification ushered in a blowout of good products and the rise of market-oriented C-end consumption, recommended BYD, paid attention to the formation of Huawei’s automobile industry ecology, and paid attention to Changan Automobile, () and Xiaokang shares; Short-term policies for fuel cells are frequent, focusing on Yihuatong, () and ().

　　China galaxy: Electric power has arrived, and intelligent driving is escorting.

　　After the epidemic, the demand picked up, and the long-term space was huge. Due to the epidemic and extreme weather, the global supply of automobile chips was in short supply, and the terminal production was reduced, which made the industry enter a tight balance state where demand exceeded supply. It is expected that the supply pressure of 21Q3 chip will be gradually eliminated.

　　We estimate that the sales volume of passenger cars in 2021 is expected to reach 21.7 million, Yoy+7.7%;

　　There is still room for doubling the total automobile sales for a long time. At present, the average number of cars per thousand people in China is less than 200. In the long run, there is still much room in absolute terms. Referring to the development history of the United States, Japan and South Korea, we predict that by 2030, the domestic car ownership is expected to be close to 400 vehicles per thousand people, and the CAGR is expected to reach 8% in 9 years;

　　It is estimated that 2.5 million new energy passenger cars will be sold in 21 years. The electrification penetration rate will exceed 10% from January to April in 21 years, and the year-on-year growth rate will exceed expectations. The annual sales volume is expected to increase by nearly 100% year-on-year. The products of traditional car companies have been accelerated, and the technology giants have successively entered the market. The trend of electrification is a foregone conclusion.

　　Intelligent components accelerate the penetration of new forces to build cars. At present, intelligent driving and cockpit equipment are stronger than traditional OEMs. We judge that traditional OEMs will accelerate the transformation to comprehensive intelligence, and the market for automatic driving and intelligent cockpit components will be the main increase in the future;

　　A new generation of hardware paves the way for intelligent driving. Driving assistance and intelligent cockpit have given birth to the application of a new generation of electronic and electrical architecture, which has stronger computing power. The increase in the types and quantity of bicycle driving assistance sensors is a general trend, and the difference in bicycle value between high/low-level driving assistance systems is about 10 times. Independent component suppliers have the advantage of being a latecomer and are expected to emerge suddenly.

　　Investment suggestion: For the whole vehicle, we suggest paying attention to Changan Automobile with strong cycle products, Great Wall Motor, the leader in segmentation, and SAIC Motor, whose relative valuation is at a low level. The parts industry suggests paying attention to 1) intelligent targets: (), (); 2) Internationalized and high-end modular leaders: Huayu Automobile and Chineydy; 3) Increase in bicycle value: (), Fuyao Glass;

　　Shanxi Securities: With the rise of independent brands, the new energy vehicle market has broad prospects.

　　Industry Review & Prediction: In the first half of 2021, the overall automobile consumption remained stable, the overall profitability of enterprises was restored, and the cumulative sales volume and cumulative retail sales of automobile products increased at a high speed year-on-year. In the short term, due to the chip supply problem and the sharp rise in raw material prices, the automobile industry is still facing downward pressure on performance, but the economy continues to recover steadily, the production and operation of enterprises continue to expand steadily, and the industry still has room for growth. The overall trend of the industry in the second half of 2021 remains unchanged.

　　1) The overall positive trend of passenger cars in the second half of the year remains unchanged, and self-owned brand passenger cars and electric vehicles are expected to maintain rapid growth. 2) The overall demand for buses is declining. With the gradual advancement of new energy technologies and the gradual growth of the RV market, the new energy and emerging markets of road buses are expected to provide an increase for the bus market. 3) Heavy trucks are expected to continue to operate at a high level throughout the year. However, due to the emission regulations, the demand for heavy trucks is mainly released in the first half of the year, and the sales volume may narrow to some extent in the second half of the year.

　　The share of SUV continues to increase, and the self-owned brand passenger cars are gradually laid out in a high-end way. Since the beginning of 2021, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars have continued to grow at a high speed year-on-year, but the growth rate has narrowed. In terms of vehicle types, SUV is the model that contributes to the main increment of passenger car sales, and its year-on-year performance is better than other models as a whole, and its sales share has been continuously improved since 2010. In terms of car system, the cumulative sales growth rate of self-owned brand passenger cars is ahead of the industry, and the trend of high-end is obvious. Self-owned brand vehicle manufacturers with high-quality brands and active layout of high-quality tracks are expected to continue to seize market share by relying on their own high-quality models. In addition, luxury cars are still outstanding, with diversified products, obvious characteristics of consumption upgrading in the automobile market, and the threshold for overlapping car purchases has dropped, and luxury cars are expected to maintain their leading position. On the whole, we are optimistic about the market segments of self-owned brand passenger cars under the trend of luxury cars and high-end, as well as the structural opportunities of cars, SUVs and other market segments. It is suggested to pay attention to vehicle manufacturers with high-quality brands, novel designs and perfect vehicle matrix, and actively lay out the fields of automobile intelligence and electrification.

　　The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has gradually increased, focusing on core components and battery industry chain. From January to May in 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 967,000 and 950,000 respectively, up 2.2 times year-on-year, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 9.4%, which became the core driving force to support the demand and performance growth of passenger car and parts enterprises. In the long run, the policies of "peak carbon dioxide emissions", "carbon neutrality" and "fuel vehicle license restriction" make it clear that new energy vehicles will gradually replace fuel vehicles in the future, and the intelligent networking, automatic driving and quick response of products will inject more advantages into new energy vehicles. In the past, battery life and safety problems have been improved with the improvement of battery and fast charging technology. At present, the cost performance of domestic new energy vehicles is gradually equal to that of fuel vehicles, and the market prospect is broader. It is expected that battery core components with high barriers, such as high nickel anode, cathode and membrane faucet, will gain rapid development opportunities by virtue of scale effect and local advantages.

　　Investment suggestion: the consumption structure of passenger car market is continuously optimized, independent brands are gradually rising, luxury cars continue to lead the market, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is steadily increasing, and there are many structural investment opportunities to maintain the industry’s "optimistic" rating. Industry stock selection suggestions focus on two main lines: first, the vehicle leader with high-quality brand and high-quality track layout; The second is to focus on new energy vehicles and automobile intelligence, focusing on core components and battery industry chain. Suggested attention: Guangzhou Automobile Group, Great Wall Motor, BYD, (), (), ().

　　Guosen Securities (Hong Kong) Financial Holdings: Embracing the Advantages of Independent Brands.

　　The market share of independent brands continues to rise.

　　According to the data of China Automobile Association, in the first five months of 2021, the market share of self-owned brand passenger cars recorded 41.6%, up 3.2 percentage points from 2020. If we look at the monthly data, the market share of independent brands fell to a multi-year low of 33.5% in June 2020, and then it continued to rise significantly, and the trend of continuous decline in share in recent years was obviously reversed.

　　By analyzing the sales data of specific vehicle manufacturers, we can see that the share of independent brands continues to rise, which is not driven by the high sales of a few car companies, but that most car companies have achieved good performance beyond the industry. For example, the sales growth rate of Great Wall Motor, Changan Automobile, Chery Automobile, BYD and other car companies in the first five months of 2021 far exceeded the industry average.

　　The overall competitiveness of mainstream independent brands has improved significantly.

　　The share of self-owned brand car companies continues to increase. We think one of the main reasons is that the overall competitiveness of mainstream self-owned brands has improved significantly, and this improvement has certain universality. The obvious improvement of competitiveness is first reflected in product competitiveness. In the past, self-owned brand models often attracted consumers through rich configurations and relatively low prices. In recent years, with the overall progress of self-owned brand car companies in vehicle interior and exterior design, dynamic performance, driving quality and other aspects, product competitiveness has been significantly improved. Especially since the second half of last year, Geely, Great Wall and other self-owned brand head car companies have successively launched models whose performance and quality have not lost or even surpassed those of joint venture brands, driving the competitiveness of self-owned brand models to a new level.

　　The promotion of product competitiveness is driven by the continuous improvement of research and development and technical strength. In addition, in the past two years, independent brands have made considerable progress in vehicle planning and design, market positioning, market promotion and other soft power. Some car companies have achieved quite good results in the youth and trend strategy of vehicle design and promotion.

　　Generally speaking, the overall competitiveness of independent brands has improved significantly, which is the result of years of accumulation by car companies. At present, the gap between the product strength of self-owned brand models and joint venture brands is shrinking, and even some models have surpassed it. Moreover, from the aspects of new product launch frequency, iterative speed of vehicle renewal, intelligence, vehicle design route, marketing promotion strategy, etc., some head independent brands have begun to surpass the traditional joint venture brands. We believe that the overall competitiveness of independent brands is expected to continue to improve in the future, thus further promoting the continuous expansion of market share.

　　We believe that in terms of short-term and medium-term sales growth in the industry, the growth rate of passenger car sales in the third quarter may be lower, and it may pick up in the fourth quarter. In the medium and long term, the market share of independent brands will continue to expand or will become a general trend, while the share of mid-end joint venture car companies may be squeezed. In the future, we think it will focus on two aspects: 1. Independent brand advantage car companies; 2. Subdivision of new energy vehicles. Maintain the industry rating of outperforming the market. In terms of specific targets, we suggest focusing on Great Wall Motor, BYD, Geely Automobile and Guangzhou Automobile Group.

　　Cctv news Married, accountant, introverted, with a monthly salary of several thousand yuan, this is a portrait of 28-year-old Wang Dong (a pseudonym). However, to everyone’s surprise, he actually used his position to misappropriate 8.9 million yuan of public funds for "rewarding" female network anchors, and individual anchors received more than 1.6 million yuan of "rewarding" online.

　　How is this money spent? Can it be recovered? For the webcast platform, what does the anchor earn?

　　Spending 100 thousand on "200 rockets" at a time is very face-saving

(Video screenshot)

　　Originally, the company wanted to conduct a year-end audit, but the company accountant disappeared the day before the audit. The employees of a real estate company in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu Province, who felt that the situation was serious immediately reported the case. Wang Dong, the company accountant, may have misappropriated public funds, and now he can’t contact, asking the public security organs to investigate.

　　After receiving the police, the police immediately launched an investigation and found that Wang Dong used his position to misappropriate public funds for more than 10 times, reaching 8.9 million yuan.

　　So, where did Dong Wang embezzle so much money?

　　It turned out that 8.9 million yuan was basically used to "reward" more than 10 network anchors, and the most female anchors were rewarded with 1.6 million yuan. After learning that the company was going to audit the accounts, he knew that not only would he be unable to conceal the embezzlement, but he would also be unable to repay it. So, he took the high-speed train to Shanghai to meet the female anchor "Yu Keer" he met online, and then cut his wrist at the hotel to commit suicide.

　　Seeing the continuous outflow of blood, Wang Dong had a desire to survive again. After calling "Yu Keer", he was sent to the hospital for rescue.

　　After leaving the hospital, Wang Dong voluntarily surrendered himself and confessed to his misappropriation of funds. Subsequently, he was criminally detained by the public security organs according to law.

　　Why is it that the misappropriated money is reluctant to give a penny to my family, but I am willing to reward the female anchor?

　　Wang Dong said that his family condition is very ordinary. He has been living with his parents since he got married. When he rewarded the anchor, 500 yuan got a "rocket" in cash. He spent 100,000 yuan to brush "200 rockets" for the female anchor at one time, so everyone thought he was a "rich second generation", which made him feel very proud.

　　The police said that Wang Dong not only showed off on the Internet, but in reality, as he and two female anchors developed into a boyfriend and girlfriend relationship, he stayed in the presidential suite of a high-end hotel when he was dating with public funds, and each time he spent about 30,000 yuan.

　　The police said that at present, it is very difficult to recover the funds misappropriated by Wang Dong, and they are actively looking for these anchors.

　　Network female anchor: no money, no gifts.

(Video screenshot)

　　The female anchor "Yu Keer" said that she has changed many live broadcast platforms, but Wang Dong will follow suit.

　　For many young people, the new career of network anchor is highly sought after by them. So, what are the main income channels of anchor?

　　The network anchor "Yu Keer" is one of Wang Dong who brushes the most gifts and develops into a boyfriend and girlfriend. She said that for network anchors, people who have no money and brush less gifts simply don’t care.

　　Yu Keer said that Wang Dong was a "local tyrant" every time he was rewarded. Although they were no longer in the same city, they still exchanged micro-signals with each other and later met offline. Regarding the relationship with Wang Dong, "Yu Keer" said that this is what everyone needs. I regard live broadcast as a profession, and the other party will "reward" myself more, so naturally I will say a few more words and meet each other.

　　Expert: the anchor should not touch the moral bottom line at will

　　Why are there so many network platforms? As a new format, what qualities should it have? What kind of content is output?

　　Zhang Bin, a reporter from china national radio, said that when webcasting just started, the anchor could win the public’s favor by "face value". Later, in addition to spelling the face value, the anchor spelled out talents such as singing, dancing and magic. Now, when the webcasting platform is getting bigger and bigger, as the general public who has neither "face value" nor talent, they play different and wonderful forms such as live drunk driving and eating glass. Such examples are not uncommon.

　　Zhang Bin said that there are a large number of teenagers and minors behind the network, and the harm caused by exporting content with incorrect values and wrong orientation may be enormous. But in fact, the anchor can become a "positive online celebrity" by imparting knowledge and explaining the contents of professional fields. Secondly, the low cost of webcasting is the primary reason for the emergence of network platforms and anchors one after another. "online celebrity" wants to make more money, and will take some side-stepping forms. If the platform wants to make more money, it will tolerate or even acquiesce in "online celebrity" playing the sideline.

　　"When the truth is still wearing shoes, rumors have spread around half the world." Cheng Ligeng, a well-known scholar at China Youth University for Politics, said that the Internet can relieve stress and kill boring time, but the content of "three customs" must not exist. Because the information transmitted by the network is spread in geometric progression and virus, the network anchor must follow two principles: those who violate laws and regulations, those who violate public order and good customs, and those who touch the moral bottom line and transmit bad content. (Text/wanglili)

Original title: Secret Service Mission: Novel Structure and Contemporary Expression of Spy War Drama

The double puzzle of reality and game world, the secret game of national security — — The newly-launched new Guoan anti-espionage urban drama "Secret Service Mission" has unlocked a brand-new scene for the story of "Secret Service" and injected narrative expression close to the development of contemporary society and the daily life of young people.

The Secret War from the Contemporary Perspective

The story is set in Jinhai, China in 2021. A game of "Secret Service Mission" is popular among young people. The overseas intelligence organization "Night Fog" uses this game to secretly spy without the players’ knowledge. The drama tells the story of the course that the Reconnaissance Department of the National Security Bureau of Jinhai City successfully cracked a series of espionage actions and safeguarded national security in this high-pressure situation. The dramatic background lays a lot of suspense, and the drama has attracted much attention because of its examination of network security in modern society.

In the scene design, there are no flying cars, blasting and climbing on skyscrapers, but flying close to the ground, which is a puzzle in urban life. In the setting of the main line, the drama leads from a seemingly ordinary online game to a war of national security, reeling from the interweaving of the real world and the virtual world. The perspective of Secret Service jumped out of the traditional setting of similar foreign commercial films, and the texture of life and the interaction between reality and reality became its two highlights.

"We found that the battle on the hidden front in real life is more powerful than those fictional plots, although there is no thrilling scene in the movie." After interviewing the real national security personnel, the director and his team made a choice on the tone of the story, and a series of anti-espionage struggles based on the contemporary urban situation began.

Two-line game between the virtual world and the real world, with multiple perspectives of urban group images.

How to highlight the concept of "modern spy war"? With the help of online games, a cultural carrier that attracts the attention of contemporary youth, the play constructs a multi-dimensional and multi-angle narrative structure, connecting two time and space and constructing a double puzzle. In the play, players wear VR devices and are immersed in game tasks, but they don’t know that they have already been used by overseas intelligence organizations. "This is no longer a game, it is a struggle."

In order to strengthen the sense of closeness to daily life, "Secret Service Mission" does not "deify" the national security personnel, but delicately shows their hardships and extraordinary will in the long-term battle of pursuing the truth. Its group image setting is also outside the spy war’s villain camp, and it has joined many ordinary players’ identities, showing in an all-round way how this secret war has affected the lives of every ordinary person. Gao Tianyang, the hero, is a young and promising head of the reconnaissance department of the National Security Bureau of Jinhai City. He has a superior IQ and a meticulous mind, and takes safeguarding national interests as his own responsibility. Huang Zicheng, the younger brother who grew up with Gao Tianyang, is an adventurous game addict, but he happens to be deeply involved in the spy game. Huang Zicheng met his partner, Vagrancy, in the game. Just as his feelings were growing, he unexpectedly found that his meeting with Vagrancy was not accidental … … It is difficult to distinguish between the real world and the virtual world, and the choice between sensibility and rationality is interspersed among them, which has become the key focus of its dramatic conflict.

In the "agent mission" of online games, it is a surreal Cyberpunk world, which simulates the real player’s perspective. Taking virtual reality as a barrier, overseas intelligence personnel use the weakness of human nature to spread the intelligence network everywhere, so the anti-espionage work of national security personnel is difficult. The characters in the play have the dual identities of virtual reality and real world, and the urban group images show a variety of faces in different situations, and the complex relationship network of the drama has also been constructed.

Anti-spy suspense breaks the circle and explains the feelings of the new generation of national security

"This hidden front is not far from the lives of ordinary people, and it is likely to exist around you and me. Any ordinary person may become the object of being used by spies." Zhao Baogang, the director, mentioned this in his exposition of drama creation. Different from the suspended stunt of many spy-themed dramas, Secret Service puts the spy war story around the people.

In recent years, with the increasing demand for network use, the detectability of espionage has been greatly tested. Taking this phenomenon as the breakthrough point, The Secret Service incorporates the audio-visual elements with strong sensory stimulation, such as Role-playing game and Cyberpunk wind scenes, which are popular among young audiences in the spy war plot, so as to achieve the destruction of the national security drama.

In the game rules of "Secret Service", virtual currency can be converted into real currency, and the attractive reward has made many players accept offline tasks. With the development of science and technology, espionage has penetrated into every corner of society in a more hidden way, and the war against espionage has been quietly launched in a silent place. The play presents the inner world and emotional needs of the victims with strong empathy, and at the same time reminds the audience to be vigilant and prevent the delay.

The national security personnel, such as Gao Tianyang and Wu Xi, present a national security outlook that keeps pace with the times. They can switch identities and costumes at any time, and they don’t miss any tiny clues to fight against espionage. The play not only depicts their choices in love and law, but also pays tribute to the forbearance and persistence of national security workers on the secret front with warm brushwork.

Based on real social problems, rooted in the contemporary context of cyber espionage, and integrated with the younger perspective of virtual reality — — "Secret Service Mission" expands the differentiated expression of the secret service theme and deduces a different new generation of national security feelings. (Author: Zhao Rui, lecturer, School of Journalism and Communication, Central University for Nationalities)

　　Since the beginning of this year, China has continued to promote supply-side structural reforms, increased tax reduction and fee reduction, rationalized the price formation mechanism in important areas, maintained a balance between market supply and demand, lowered inflation expectations, and moderately fluctuated consumer prices. At present, the overall price level has maintained a stable operation trend, which indicates that the economic operation is stable and good, creating a good environment for promoting high-quality economic development.

　　Recently, there has been a strong expectation that the prices of pork, fruit and other foods will rise. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics not long ago, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.0% in the first four months of this year. Among them, in April, the CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, and it was in the "2 era" for two consecutive months.

　　In an interview with Economic Daily China Economic Net, relevant experts said that, on the whole, since the beginning of this year, China has continued to promote supply-side structural reforms, increased tax reduction and fee reduction, rationalized the price formation mechanism in important areas, maintained a balance between market supply and demand, lowered inflation expectations, and moderately fluctuated consumer prices. At present, the overall price level has maintained a stable operation trend, which indicates that the economic operation is stable and good, creating a good environment for promoting high-quality economic development.

　　There has been a structural increase in prices.

　　In the first four months of this year, CPI rose by 1.7%, 1.5%, 2.3% and 2.5% respectively, and the monthly year-on-year increase showed a steady upward trend in moderate fluctuations. Among them, in the last two months, the year-on-year increase in prices has increased, entering the "2 era."

　　Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that the CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year in April this year, mainly due to the increase of individual varieties. Among them, pork, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits all increased by more than 10% year-on-year.

　　"Overall, despite the increase in CPI in the last two months, it is significantly lower than the control target of 3%, and it is mainly affected by factors such as the base of the previous year, the hikes and seasonality, showing structural upward characteristics and not having a comprehensive upward basis." Zhang Qianrong, deputy director of the Finance and Finance Research Office of the National Information Center, said.

　　Zhang Qianrong analyzed that in the first four months of this year, food prices rose by 3.2% year-on-year, which boosted CPI by 0.62 percentage points and contributed 29.7% to the CPI increase. Non-food prices rose by 1.7%, which boosted CPI by 1.48 percentage points and contributed 70.3%. The contribution rate of non-food prices to the price increase is obviously higher than that of food. Although the recent increase in pork prices has led to an increase in food prices, non-food prices have remained stable as a whole, and prices do not have the basis for an overall increase.

　　"At present, China’s price increase is at a medium level on a global scale. From an international perspective, China’s price increase is slightly higher than that of developed economies such as the United States and the European Union, and significantly lower than that of BRICS countries such as Russia, which is at a medium level in the world. " Zhang Qianrong said.

　　The data shows that in the first quarter of this year, the US CPI rose by 1.7% year-on-year, while the EU harmonized CPI rose by 1.6%, slightly lower than that of China. India’s CPI rose by 7.1%, Russia’s by 5.2%, South Africa’s by 4.2% and Brazil’s by 4.2%, which was significantly higher than China’s CPI.

　　It is worth noting that in the first four months of this year, the national producer price index (PPI) rose by 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.4% and 0.9% respectively, with a slight year-on-year increase.

　　Zhang Qianrong said that the increase in PPI was mainly affected by factors such as the rise in international oil prices and the negative increase in the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, the increase of PPI is lower than that of CPI, and the upstream and downstream price trends are upside down.

　　Pork supply is relatively abundant.

　　In April, the price of pork rose by 14.4%, an increase of 9.3 percentage points over the previous month, which affected the year-on-year increase of CPI by about 0.31 percentage points.

　　Relevant data show that in the first ten days of March this year, the price of white pigs rose continuously and rapidly. On March 1st, the average wholesale price of striped pigs in Beijing Xinfadi Market was 7.28 yuan/kg, but on March 10th, the price rose to 9.45 yuan/kg, and the price rose by 29.90% in 10 days, which was quite obvious. Since then, the price has fluctuated slightly.

　　"Overall, pork prices have changed little in the past 60 days. In other words, after the price of meat reached a higher level in mid-March, it showed a weak trend. " Liu Tong, director of statistics department of Beijing Xinfadi agricultural products wholesale market, said.

　　Liu Tong analyzed that in the first ten days of March, the price of pork rose significantly, which was the expected increase in advance. From the market situation, in the first week of March, the average daily market volume of white pigs increased by 10% from the previous week and 15% from the same period of last year, and there was no shortage of supply. In this case, the increase in meat prices mainly comes from the thrust outside the market, especially the data released by some institutions show that the stock of fertile sows has decreased, which provides conditions for the bottom rebound of meat prices.

　　"The increase or decrease in the number of fertile sows reflects that there is a certain lag period in the supply capacity and price, and the insiders call this lag period ‘ Cobweb effect ’ . In other words, the supply of pigs in the second half of 2019 may show ‘ Tight equilibrium ’ State, meat prices will rise. Therefore, the rise in early March is an early rise. " Liu Tong analyzed that after the release of relevant data, most forecasts tend to show that the pig price will reach an all-time high. This expectation has played a strong role in fueling the rise in meat prices.

　　Liu Tong said that in fact, the number of pig heads with white stripes does not fully represent the supply of ketone bodies in pork. After the price of meat rose, the pig farm was filled with the emotion of waiting for the price to be sold, the time of keeping pigs in the pen was prolonged, and the single weight of pigs generally increased. In April 2019, the single weight of pigs generally increased by 10%. According to this calculation, the supply of pork in April this year exceeded the same period last year. If this phenomenon continues, when the number of pigs drops by 20% and the single weight of pigs increases by 20%, the decline in the number of pigs can be compensated by the increase of single weight, and the supply of pork is still relatively sufficient.

　　There is no inflation risk.

　　"Overall, whether it is from food or industrial consumer goods and services, there will be no sharp increase in CPI in the future, and prices will be stable and have a solid foundation." In response to the future trend of prices, Liu Aihua said.

　　Liu Aihua analyzed that, from the perspective of food prices, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits are short-term impacted by extreme weather factors, which is not sustainable, and pork prices have a certain resilience. With the gradual recovery of prices, farmers’ enthusiasm for replenishing the column will be correspondingly improved, which will play a stabilizing role in prices. From the perspective of non-food prices, the supply capacity of industrial products is sufficient, and there is no basis for a sharp increase. Although the increase in service prices is relatively high, it is generally stable.

　　"Overall, the factors that will support and curb price increases in the future are intertwined." Zhang Qianrong said. From the factors supporting the price increase, on the one hand, affected by African swine fever epidemic and other factors, the number of live pigs has declined, and pork prices have continued to rise. However, considering the strong overall supply capacity of pork in China, an early warning mechanism for pig price control has been established, and it is more likely that the pork price will increase in the later period, but it does not have the basis for a substantial increase; On the other hand, with the decline of demographic dividend, labor cost will become a long-term factor to push up prices.

　　On the one hand, since 2012, the increase of CPI in China has been less than 3%. Considering that residents’ inflation expectations are generally related to the previous price level, the current low price increase has reduced residents’ inflation expectations; On the other hand, China’s main industrial products are abundant in supply, with bumper harvests for many years, high grain and oil stocks, rapid development of service industry, strong supply capacity in various fields and strong price stability. In addition, with the continuous advancement of supply-side structural reforms, the operating costs of enterprises have been significantly reduced, providing a good policy environment for stabilizing prices.

　　Zhang Qianrong said that after preliminary calculation, the CPI hikes factor is about 0.7% and PPI hikes factor is about 0.1% in 2019. Considering the hikes and the above factors, it is expected that consumer prices in China will continue to rise moderately and steadily in 2019, with CPI rising by about 2.3% and PPI rising by about 1.0%. There is no inflation risk, and the pressure on price control is light.